Notably, Lean built a separate agent-based model for the Hajj, the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, Saudi Arabia. Simulation, using the SEIR(D) model, showing agents traveling in an airplane As a result, the chance of spreading the disease is higher than if those people were not sitting next to each other. On an airplane, for example, two people can sit next to each other and if one is infectious, then the other could be susceptible. Here, there is clear and specific behavior for each agent, or passenger. There were also just agent-based models designed for specific simulations such as in an airplane. As a result, the model can be applied to other countries. The model interface is very user-friendly, giving users the possibility to change the parameters, policies, and importantly, even the population. Additionally, capacity planning was built into the model and included such resources as nurses, ICU beds, doctors, and so on. If there are no more available ventilators, then anyone who needs one would not have access and this could lead to death and an increase in the death rate.Įvents and assumptions in the model included international travel, work, Eid – which is a national holiday in Saudi Arabia, the program scenarios, vaccination, and school. Pathways in this case are events, and these can be based on if statements, for example, the number of ventilators available. Disease behavior specifically related to COVID-19.įrom these unique parameters, there are 95 distinctive pathways again multiplied by the 20 directorates creating 1900 dynamic events.Therefore, in total there areġ640 parameters, which are divided into 4 main categories: For each directorate there is a separate simulation model. Multimethod simulation model showing agent-based modeling and system dynamicsĪ multimethod model has 82 unique parameters and 20 health directorates or divisions. Combining these two increased the model flexibility to simulate various scenarios without delay. The agent-based part of the model simulated the behavior on the individual level in depth, while the system dynamics part handled large amounts of information on the aggregate level. The models they produced were multimethod models between agent-based and system dynamics. Then they built many other models on top of it. Lean built this core SEIR(D) model using system dynamics. SEIR(D) system dynamics model – simplified base model This is further split into multiple models as immunity fades away and if immunization is not as effective for all people. In a population, every individual exists in one of five states:
SolutionĪ SEIR(D) model is a mathematical model of the spread of an infectious disease.
Lean, therefore, built a simulation model using AnyLogic software to understand the spread of the disease and to identify how different policies could change the spread of the virus over time. This simulation could help in capacity planning for health resources, which at the height of the pandemic were limited.
During COVID-19, simulation was needed to help understand different policies the government introduced and the impact of those policies on controlling the spread of COVID-19. Lean Business Services is a leading company in assisting and developing the health sector in Saudi Arabia. Quick responses were vital to control the spread of the disease. Some of these decisions were risky, but all of them impacted their countries in many different sectors, including the political and economic. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries made different decisions regarding policies towards this new coronavirus.